Cleaner fuels could 'halve premature deaths' from ship emissions

[Neptune]

As the International Maritime Organization (IMO) meets in London this week to discuss tighter air pollution standards for ships, environmental groups say the United Nations body cannot ignore evidence that a cleaner fuel standard could "save tens of thousands of lives." According to results from continuing scientific research, released recently by the US-based Clean Air Task Force (CATF) and submitted to the IMO by the Friends of the Earth International (FOEI) delegation, premature deaths caused by air pollution from international shipping will total over 80,000 by 2012. The updated analysis found that this death toll could be cut by half or more by substantially reducing the sulphur content of marine fuel. This new work builds on a scientific, peer-reviewed report published in the December 15, 2007 issue of the American Chemical Society journal Environmental Science & Technology. The original study, called 'Mortality from Ship Emissions: A Global Assessment' was led by Dr. James J. Corbett at the University of Delaware and Dr. James Winebrake of the Rochester Institute of Technology.

The latest analysis, 'Mitigating Health Impacts of Ship Pollution through Low Sulfur Fuel Options: Initial Comparison of Scenarios,' has been conducted by most of the same scientists.

Using the same methodology as their previous work, the scientists have estimated mortality changes by 2012 associated with three of the six policy scenarios currently under review for the IMO's ship emission regulation framework; MARPOL Annex VI.

The study's base-line scenario, no action, assumes continued worldwide use of heavy fuel oil (HFO) bunkers with an average sulphur content of about 2.7%. The study says this would lead to 83,700 premature deaths from shipping-related emissions by 2012, up from around 60,000 in 2002.

A 'coastal scenario' assuming the use of marine distillate fuel with a sulphur content of 0.1% by ships sailing within 200 miles of the world's coastlines could reduce premature mortality rates by about 50% to 42,200, the study found.

The coastal scenario is in line with 'Option B1', proposed by the United States, as a way of reducing sulphur oxides (SOx) and particulate matter (PM) emissions from ships under MARPOL Annex VI.

A global scenario with all ships using marine distillate fuel with a 0.5% sulphur cap (Option C for MARPOL Annex VI) could cut premature mortality rates by around 60% to 33,700, the study claims.

"The IMO cannot continue to ignore the mounting evidence that action to reduce air pollution from ships could avoid tens of thousands of premature deaths each year," said David Marshall, senior counsel at the Boston-based Clean Air Task Force (CATF), an observer in the IMO discussions.

The decision-making process at the IMO is consensus-driven, and with many different interests at stake, moving forward on MARPOL Annex has proved challenging.

"I realize that consensus may be difficult," Marshall told Bunkerworld. "But I think that if IMO does not reach consensus on meaningful reductions, individual states will need to take strong actions on their own to protect their citizens and their environment -- 60,000 to 80,000+ premature deaths each year cannot be allowed to continue."

A similar warning came from Joao Viera, Policy Officer with the Brussels-based European Federation for Transport and the Environment.

"It is a disgrace that thousands are dying needlessly as a result of the IMO's intransigence on air pollution," Viera stated. "If the organization fails to come up with a plan within the next few months it will be up to the EU and other regions to do the job for them. Continued waiting is simply not an option."

Marshall also emphasized that the benefits from cleaner marine fuel and reduced emissions would far outweigh the costs.

The Clean Air Task Force, using cost methodology employed by US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to value the benefits of particulate emission reductions, estimates that the 40,000 to 50,000 lives saved annually by cleaning up marine fuel will produce benefits to society of about $225 to $275 billion per year.

CATF is participating with FOEI in the IMO negotiations. They believe the IMO should require reductions of NOx emissions in the 90% range, and reductions of SOx emissions in the 70-90% range, for both new and existing ships as soon as possible, but no later than 2015.

They say these emission reductions can be accomplished through the use of low sulphur fuels as well as a substantial variety of engine modifications and after-treatment devices.

Sustainable Shipping

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