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Άρθρο της tradewinds με ημερομηνία 06/02 επιβεβαιώνει ότι μας είπε ο @Nick the Greek

Ποστάρω το άρθρο από κάτω και ένα link για όποιον/α θέλει να το διαβάσει κατευθείαν από την πηγή. 

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Bulker owners in no mood to celebrate Chinese New Year
Dry bulk rates hit near record lows on economic woes and lower Brazilian iron ore exports

A global economic slowdown, seasonal demand weakness and a deadly accident at Vale’s iron ore operation have dragged dry bulk shipping rates down to near record lows. That is being seen by some as a bad omen for shipowners in the coming quarters.

While bulker earnings tend to be plagued by demand softness around the Chinese Lunar New Year, which was on Tuesday, market participants have suggested the slowdown is sharper and broader than usual.

The Baltic Dry Index fell below 630 earlier this week, a low not seen since June 2016, with earnings for all sizes of ships assessed below operating costs

Looming volatility

“There is a lack of activity and lack of confidence,” Western Bulk Chartering chief executive Jens Ismar told TradeWinds. “This year looks very challenging and volatile.”

Analysts have been revising down earnings forecasts amid deteriorating rate environments.

According to Bloomberg’s shipping survey released earlier this month (feb?), the median forecast for average capesize earnings this year is $19,254 per day, down from $21,432 in November. Under its revisions, panamaxes fell to $13,000 per day from $14,263 per day, supramaxes to $12,500 per day from $13,500 per day, and handysizes slipped to $9,625 per day from $10,400 per day.

While asset prices and time-charter rates in the bulker markets have been relatively resilient to date, Stifel analyst Ben Nolan said further downward corrections are likely.

“Asset values tend to lag time charter rates and time-charter rates tend to lag spot rates,” Nolan said. “We could be very close to an absolute bottom in rates ... but it does not look like asset values have bottomed.”

The rate weakness began towards the end of December for vessels of less than 100,000 dwt, with multiple macroeconomic indicators simultaneously flashing red warning lights.

Trade tensions

While Chinese and German industrial activities continue to slow amid persistent trade tensions with the US, exports from Asian powerhouses such as Japan, Singapore and South Korea are tumbling.

“The severity and pace of freight-rate declines for low-volatility smaller ships, the most exposed to global commodity demand and industrial production, signal China's industrial slowdown is spreading,” Bloomberg Intelligence senior industry analyst Rahul Kapoor said.

“A rapid fall in dry bulk shipping rates … is a worrying sign and signals demand quickly eroding.”

For the panamax segment, China’s restriction on coal imports and tariffs on US soybeans have undercut vessel demand since the second half of last year.

Beijing has been limiting coal imports to encourage domestic production, with December imports falling to 10.2 million tonnes from 22.7 million tonnes in the same month of 2017.

Unfulfilled promises

While Chinese officials said the country would buy more US soybeans in attempts to ease trade tension, such promises — usually without timelines — have done little to lift sentiments among bulker owners.

Only 540,000 tonnes of soybean were shipped from US Pacific ports to mainland China in the first four weeks of January, according to Bimco, citing BullPositions data. China imported 32.9 million tonnes of soybeans from the US in 2017 and 16.6 million tonnes in 2018.

Earnings prospects of capesizes have worsened significantly following a breach of Vale’s upstream dam in Brumadinho in the state of Minas Gerais in January, resulting in more than 100 deaths. In the same state, a dam rupture at the Samarco operation — owned by Vale and BHP — killed 19 people in 2015.

Vale is decommissioning 19 other dams with the same design, removing in total some 40 million tonnes of iron ore production from the market.

“While Vale wants to increase production at its other mines to compensate for the [production] loss … a furious Brazilian government is unlikely to permit the company to increase operations in the near term,” Drewry Shipping Consultants lead dry bulk analyst Rahul Sharan said.

While Australian miners can step up to fill in the supply gap in Asia, potentially the demand for 35 to 40 capesizes could be lost this year due to lower tonne miles, Sharan added.

Bouncing back

Still, most market players are hesitant to write off this year’s bulker markets.

“We expect support to reoccur from mid to end-Feb, as South American soybeans start to flow into the market again, and the decisive Chinese buyers return from New Year celebrations,” Bimco chief analyst Peter Sand said.

The Chinese government may also launch another round of infrastructure spendings to avoid a sharp economic slowdown, which would reverse the fortunes of bulker owners, according to Kapoor.

Industry estimates generally put this year’s net fleet growth at a reasonable level of 3%.

Moreover, IMO 2020 could trigger some scrapping if earnings remain low, while some ships are due to be removed from trading temporarily for scrubber installations, according to some market participants.

“We believe an extended slowdown in fleet growth will help arrest the significant decline in freight rates,” Kapoor added

 

 

 
Edited by Ssiap21

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Δεν έχουν τέλος τα προβλήματα για τη Vale σύμφωνα με χτεσινό Άρθρο της Tradewinds. 

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Vale reveals problems at Tuburao terminal

February 11th, 2019 08:12 GMT

 

A wastewater treatment plant at Vale's iron ore complex in Tubarao, Brazil, has been partially shut down.

This was affecting input and coal port services and four of eight pelletising plants there, the company said, according to the Platts news agency.

Tubarao's iron ore pellet production capacity exceeds 36.2m tonnes per year.

Pelletising plants one to four, accounting for about half of its production, have been affected.

The partial shutdown was ordered by the Vitoria city government, which said wastewater was being released into coastal seas, Vitoria's environmental agency said on Friday.

Vale was also fined BRL 35m ($9.39m), the agency said.

The company denied any problems with the system.

"No irregularities were found in the system during the latest inspections by the city environmental authorities, and the monitoring reports from October 2018 to December 2018 indicate that the wastewater is within the established parameters," it said in a statement.

"[Vale] has been monitoring the water bodies that receive the wastewater for over 30 years, and it has never found any changes to the quality of water."

The mining giant was hit last month by the fatal collapse of a tailings dam in Brumadinho

 

Edited by Ssiap21

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Η οποία Vale έχει ήδη αρχίσει να χρησιμοποιεί τα Force Majeure clauses που έχει στα συμβόλαια με τους πελάτες της. 

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Και να προσθέσουμε πως πέρα από τη ναυλαγορά, σαν αποτέλεσμα των παραπάνω έχουν πάρει τον ανήφορο και οι τιμές ορισμένων commodities όπως το σίδηρομετάλλευμα και το ατσάλι. 

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Πολύ ενδιαφέρον άρθρο στη χτεσινή Tradewinds για την αγορά των δεξαμενόπλοιων και την κατάσταση στη Βενεζουέλα.

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Venezuela crude tanker charters win big rewards

Crude tanker owners that are willing to trade despite US sanctions are taking hefty profits, brokers report

February 14th, 2019 12:06 GMT

 

Some tanker owners are still willing to lift crude in sanctions-hit Venezuela — a trade that is apparently fetching hefty premiums.

Brokers report the TMS Tankers-­owned, 159,638-dwt Karekare (built 2017) was fixed by Petro­China to load 130,000 tonnes of crude at Puerto Jose in northeastern ­Venezuela on 22 February for shipment to Ningbo, China, for a lump-sum rate of $6.3m.

This represents a $2m premium compared with similar suezmax trades, said a London-based broker, who added: “[The owner] is quite keen on this business.”

Some sources claim reports of the fixture may contain wrong ­information. AIS databases show the Karekare is destined for the Caribbean ­island of St Eustatius, where state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) stores its crude.

TMS and Petro­China declined to comment.

Saudi state-owned shipping group Bahri has confirmed the 303,000-dwt Abqaiq (built 2002) is ballasting from the Red Sea to load from Puerto Jose for one of its ­regular clients in India.

“Venezuela is a frequent loading destination for Bahri’s oil tankers, delivering cargoes to ports in ­India and China. Hence, the recent ­voyage to the Port of Jose is not an exceptional or peculiar one,” a company statement said. “Bahri strictly adheres to and ensures full compliance with the applicable laws and regulations in every market where it operates.”

According to Bahri, the cargo was contracted before the US ­announced sanctions on Vene­zuela’s oil sector and ­PDVSA on 28 January.

The Abqaiq’s voyage to India is expected to be completed within the wind-down period for the sanctions.

Also, the International Seaways-owned, 300,900-dwt ­Gener8 Success (built 2016) loaded crude at Puerto Jose in early February before sailing for Singapore, data from Bloomberg shows. TradeWinds understands that the ship was fixed before the sanctions were announced and that the New York-listed owner will steer away from Venezuelan business from now on.

Sanctions impact

Although not explicitly exposed to US sanctions so long as they do not deal with PDVSA directly, shipping companies have generally avoided carrying cargoes in potentially sanctioned trades so as not to draw the ire of Washington.

According to the Department of the Treasury, US entities will need to wind down their purchases of Venezuelan crude by 28 April.

Except for exports of heavy naphtha as diluents for Venezuela’s extra-heavy crude, they may have until 27 February to wind down their product sales with PDVSA.

Non-US entities cannot deal Venezuelan oil in US-related sanctions after 28 April. Some reckon this leaves the door open for trading in non-US currencies.

In practice, market participants point out, companies are more comfortable shipping Venezuelan crude to Asia, while steering away from US charterers.

Vessel employment opportunities for Europe-bound shipments are lacking, with importing firms hesitant to purchase Venezuelan crude after many European countries voiced opposition to President Nicolas Maduro, according to Braemar ACM.

 

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