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Gloom and doom


Nick the Greek

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MAJOR Asian dry bulk owners and operators have warned that the worst is yet to come for the market as an onslaught of newbuildings enter the fleet, outstripping demand, writes Marcus Hand .

Despite the surprise upturn in the dry bulk shipping market in the first half of this year, a sharp downturn is forecast for 2010.

“Next year might be what we feared 2009 would be. I think we delayed the problem,” Wah Kwong Maritime Transport chief executive Tim Huxley told the Marine Money Asia conference in Singapore.

Mr Huxley’s sentiments were echoed by senior executives from Pacific Carriers and Noble Chartering.

“We quite frankly have not hit the bottom yet,” said PCL director Keith Denholm.

Noble executive vice-president Mudit Paliwal said the market would probably reach new lows in the first or second quarter of next year.

China was very much seen as the sole driver of the dry bulk market this year, and Mr Huxley described the country “as the only game in town”.

Clarksons divisional director Henriette van Niekerk noted the recent recovery in the sector had only been in China, not the rest of the world. China accounts for nearly 75% of the global iron ore trade and 19% of global coal imports.

Mr Denholm warned of an over- reliance on the Chinese market and stressed that demand needed to return from developed economies. “I think it is extremely unhealthy that all roads lead to China,” he said.

The issue facing the sector next year is that Chinese will not be enough to soak up the very large numbers of newbuildings set to be delivered.

“It is really all down to supply and onslaught of newbuildings we face,” Mr Huxley said.

He noted a lot of newbuilding deliveries scheduled for the first half of this year were pushed back, but that this tonnage would still be delivered. Similarly, Mr Denholm agreed most of the ships would be delivered. Mr Paliwal noted between 25m tonnes-30m tonnes of new tonnage was expected to be delivered in the remainder of this year.

A particular area of concern is the capesize sector. With an estimated 698 capesize newbuildings to be delivered by 2012, Mr Denholm said however much iron ore China imported, it would not be enough to soak up all the supply of tonnage.

In terms of the impact this would have on the market, he said that whether people liked it or not capesizes lead the dry bulk market.

Ms van Niekerk similarly said what was needed was a decrease in the supply of tonnage as demand would not be able to fill the gap.

Πηγη η χθεσινη Lloyd's List

Κανενα σχολιο παραπανω απο αυτα που ειπαν οι κυριοι αυτοι. Η αγορα εχει ηδη παρει τον κατηφορο για τα καλα και το τελος αυτης της χρονιας οσο και η επομενη προβλεπονται σαν bloodbath(μπανιο μεσα στο αιμα) για τους πλοιοκτητες. Και ενας βασικος λογος που φτανουν εκει τα πραγματα, ειναι η απληστια των τραπεζων με τις αλογιστες χρηματοδοτησεις τους και η επιθυμια των κυβερνησεων να στηριξουν τα ναυπηγεια τους.

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και η επιθυμια των κυβερνησεων να στηριξουν τα ναυπηγεια τους.
Και γι' αυτό οι πλοιοκτήτες είναι αντίθετοι στα σχέδια περαιτέρω στήριξης των ναυπηγείων σε Ευρώπη και Ασία, τα περισσότερα των οποίων είναι έτοιμα να κλείσουν, ελλείψει νέων παραγγελιών. Φοβούνται μήπως αρχίσει νέων γύρος παραγγελιών, λόγω των δελεαστικών κινήτρων.
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Ειναι λιγακι αργα γι αυτο, το παγκοσμιο order book ειναι ηδη πραγματικα υπερμεγεθες. Φαντασου οτι ειδικα στην Απω Ανατολη υπαρχουν παραγγελιες για ναυπηγεια που δεν εχουν ακομα ανοιξει. Με λιγα λογια ορισμενα ναυπηγεια εχουν δεχτει παραγγελιες για πλοια τα οποια υπολογιζαν να χτισουν σε μοναδες που επροκειτο να δημιουργηθουν σε επεκταση αλλα λογω της κρισης αυτες οι επεκτασεις ματαιωθηκαν.

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Φαντασου οτι ειδικα στην Απω Ανατολη υπαρχουν παραγγελιες για ναυπηγεια που δεν εχουν ακομα ανοιξει.
Και όλοι αυτοί οι περισπούδαστοι αναλυτές, οι γκουρού της ναυτιλιακής και τραπεζικής αγοράς...τί προέβλεπαν? Ότι θα συνεχίζεται ες αεί και με τρελούς ρυθμούς η παγκόσμια ανάπτυξη? Και κατά συνέπεια θα πολλαπλασιάζονται συνεχώς οι ανάγκες για μεταφορές?
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